Nicola Sturgeon isn’t offering Scotland a say, she is offering false hope.

image_pdfimage_print

By Kez Dugdale

Just over two years ago, Nicola Sturgeon used the pages of the Daily Record to tell readers that improving Scottish education would be the driving and defining priority of her government.

So much for that, then.

After her speech yesterday, here is my message to Nicola Sturgeon : Our country is divided enough, it should not be divided again.

The vast majority of Scots don’t want to replay angry arguments between family and friends.

Nicola Sturgeon should think back to those bitter arguments before she tries to divide us again.

Specifically she should think about how wrong she was then and how wrong she is now.

The SNP said the only way to have a fairer Scotland, to end austerity, was independence.

That argument has now fallen apart. The SNP’s estimates for oil for the first two years of an independent Scotland were out by £21billion.

That’s more than our country’s annual health and education budgets put together. This isn’t just about the black stuff – it’s about the future of our schools and hospitals.

Labour warned that the SNP’s plan was reckless at the time. The SNP Government agreed with us. In secret.

An official analysis paper prepared by the civil service for them outlined the cuts that would happen with independence.

Rather than release the paper, the SNP tried to hide it. The SNP knew the sums didn’t add up. But they offered false hope, especially to the poorest in our country.

Nicola Sturgeon told people independence could end austerity, knowing that wasn’t true. She knew it would mean even bigger cuts to our public services and told people the opposite on doorsteps.

That’s not clever PR, that’s misleading the country on an industrial scale. Thousands of Scots voted Yes on the basis of a lie the SNP knowingly sold them. Nicola Sturgeon should be ashamed.
Two years on, she is ready to do it again.

None of the fundamental questions of 2014 have been answered. The SNP still don’t know what currency an independent Scotland would have. They still can’t explain how they would pay for pensions and there is still no reply to how our public services would cope with unprecedented cuts.

Even if oil revenues had not fallen through the floor, an independent Scotland would still have faced public spending cuts much worse than whatever the Tories have been planning. With thousands of Scots in need of a payrise, the SNP can’t say what their wages will be paid in – and if they would be worth the same as they are today.

Having campaigned to remain in one political union last year, the SNP now can’t explain why we should leave one which is four times as important to our economy and through which we built the NHS and the welfare state.

Just over two years ago, our country debated independence. It was the biggest democratic exercise in history. For two years there wasn’t a pub, coffee shop, workplace or Facebook timeline without people having their say.

And after those two years of debate. A record turnout saw a staggering 85 per cent of people vote in the referendum and the answer was clear: Together, we’re stronger.

That is why Scottish Labour MSPs will vote against a divisive second independence referendum at Holyrood next week.

We should be using the new powers of Holyrood to look to the future, which is why Labour will hold a People’s Constitutional Convention to chart Britain’s course for the next generation.

Labour want to see a radical federal solution that will mean more powers for the Scottish Parliament while keeping the security and opportunity that comes with being part of the UK.

That is a plan to unite our divided country. An alternative answer that will mean more powers influence and control not just to our Scottish Parliament but down to our own communities and right across the UK.

More than 200,000 children in Scotland live in poverty. Attainment in our schools is falling. Our NHS does not have enough doctors and nurses. Our economy is sluggish, jobs are too often low-pay, low- skilled and short-term.

None of these problems is addressed by a second independence referendum.

Only a nationalist could think they are, because their obsession with winning independence trumps everything else – even telling people the truth about independence.

The questions of 2014 remain unanswered.

The economic case of independence, which was tissue-paper thin in the first place, has collapsed.

Nicola Sturgeon isn’t offering Scotland a say, she is offering false hope.

This article first appeared in the Daily Record on 14/03/2017

Agree with Kez? Sign the pledge against #indyref2 here: https://www.togetherstronger.scot/ 

BCC Economic Forecast: UK growth upgraded for 2017 but to remain flat in the medium-term

image_pdfimage_print

Today the BCC releases its latest latest economic forecast.

14th March 2017 

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today (Tuesday) upgraded its UK GDP growth forecast for 2017 from 1.1% to 1.4%. However, it has downgraded its expectations slightly for 2018 from 1.4% to 1.3%, and published its first forecast for 2019 of 1.5% growth.

The leading business group upgraded its growth forecast for 2017, driven by an upward revision to UK GDP growth data in the final quarter of 2016, and stronger than expected levels of consumer spending. There has also been a slight improvement in the outlook for investment and trade, compared to our previous forecast.

However, economic growth is expected to remain well below its long-term average over the forecast period.

Inflation is forecast to breach the Bank of England’s 2% target this quarter, with companies facing higher input costs, which will be passed through to consumers. While average earnings are expected to hold steady, the inflationary pressures are likely to erode real wages. As a result, consumer spending, a driving force of growth in the economy in recent years, is expected to slow substantially. 

The UK’s net trade position is expected to improve over the next few years. Investment is forecast to contract this year, with subdued growth predicted in the following years, as uncertainties relating to the outcomes of the UK’s negotiations with the EU persist, and increasing input costs and taxes hit businesses.

In this period of uncertainty, there are heightened risks to the forecast. Faster levels of inflation and increased anxiety around the Brexit negotiations could result in more muted growth, however if resilience in consumer spending continues, growth levels could be bolstered.  

Key points in the forecast:

  • UK GDP growth forecast for 2017 is upgraded to 1.4%, but is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2018, before accelerating slightly to 1.5% in 2019. Growth of 0.4% is expected in Q1 2017
  • The improved growth forecast for 2017 is driven primarily by stronger than expected household consumption and ONS revisions to Q4 GDP data. GDP growth forecast for 2018 has been downgraded slightly from 1.4% to 1.3%, with consumer spending expected to weaken
  • The pace of inflation has picked up faster than expected and is forecast to breach the Bank of England’s 2% target early this year, growing by 2.4% in 2017, 2.7% in 2018 before slowing to 2.5% in 2019. This is higher than the previous forecast of 2.1% and 2.4% for 2017 and 2018 respectively
  • Consumer spending is expected to slow substantially from 1.6% in 2017, to 0.9% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019 as inflationary pressures erode real wages
  • Business investment is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2017, before growth levels of 0.2% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019
  • Export growth has been upgraded from 2.3% to 2.7% in 2017, and from 2.9% to 3.1% in 2018, and is expected to be 2.8% in 2019.
  • Looking at sectors, construction has been upgraded from -2.0% for 2017 to 0.4% and is expected to grow by 0.2% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019. The services sector is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. Manufacturing is to grow by 1.2%, 0.7% and 1.0% respectively.
  • The main downside risk to our forecast is if inflation rises by more than we currently predict which would be a further squeeze on consumer spending and business investment. The upside risk is if consumer spending current resilience continues. Under this scenario, our expectations for GDP growth would be substantially higher.

Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said:

“Thanks to the hard work of businesses and the continued resilience of the redoubtable British consumer, the U.K. economy is likely to grow somewhat more strongly than we’d previously expected during 2017.

“Yet with several years of unspectacular growth ahead, coupled with inflationary pressures and the uncertain outcome of Brexit negotiations, it has never been more important to tackle the long-standing constraints that limit business confidence and growth here at home. 

“Last week’s Budget was a missed opportunity for the government to double down on infrastructure improvements and support for international trade, and to lower the heavy up-front taxes and costs that undermine business investment. More thoughtful and radical moves to improve the business environment would give businesses – and GDP forecasts – a boost during a critical and complex time.”

Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said:

“We have upgraded our growth forecast for 2017, driven by revisions to official GDP data and a stronger than expected end to 2016 for the UK economy.

“That said, the UK economy is still set to enter a more subdued period, with growth expected to remain materially below trend over the near term. The resilience in consumer spending, a key driver of UK growth, will slowly dissipate over the coming months as higher inflation and muted wage growth combine to erode consumer spending power.

“The UK’s trade position will improve across the forecast period supported by the depreciation of Sterling and an improving outlook for the global economy.

“The imbalances in the economy continue to leave the UK increasingly exposed to economic shocks. While household consumption’s contribution to UK GDP growth is likely to decrease over the near term, the slight improvement in investment and trade prospects over the same period is not expected to be enough to prevent a slowdown in overall growth.”

Ends

Notes to editors:

As with all economic forecasts, further material changes to our forecast are possible.

Dr Adam Marshall, Director General, and Suren Thiru, Head of Economics, are available for interview.

A full copy of the forecast is available from the BCC press office.

The British Chambers of Commerce’s Quarterly Economic Forecast is run in partnership with Cambridge Econometrics.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) sits at the heart of a powerful network of 52 Accredited Chambers of Commerce across the UK, representing thousands of businesses of all sizes and within all sectors. Our Global Business Network connects exporters with nearly 40 markets around the world. For more information, visit: www.britishchambers.org.uk

Media contacts:

Allan Williams – Senior Press Manager

020 7654 5812 / 07920583381

Orla Hennessy – Press and Communications Officer

020 7654 5813 / 07825746812

News story: Veterans UK Customer Satisfaction Survey 2017

image_pdfimage_print

At Veterans UK (part of Defence Business Services) we are always trying to improve the services we deliver to our customers. One of the best ways to understand how we can make improvements is to ask the people who use our services how we can do better.

If you would like to tell us about your experiences, please complete our Customer Satisfaction Survey 2017

For more information on the services we deliver and how you can contact us, please see Veterans UK.

BCC comments on statement by Scottish First Minister

image_pdfimage_print

Adam Marshall comments on the prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum.

13th March 2017 

Commenting on the statement by Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that she will seek a second Scottish independence referendum, Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“Business communities all across the UK will be thinking, first and foremost, about the additional uncertainty that a second independence referendum would generate.

“Across Scotland – and throughout the UK – businesses want certainty, stability and confidence from governments. Firms understandably fear that another drawn-out constitutional debate would divert both Holyrood and Westminster away from delivering real-world practical support for business, investment, and growth.”

Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce, added:

“It is welcome that the First Minister has indicated that the Scottish Government will continue to engage with the political process around the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.  These are vital years ahead for the future of the UK and Scottish economy and it is crucial that Scotland has a voice at the centre of this process.

“Scotland has been through two referendums and two major elections over the past three years, and there is no doubt that this period of continual uncertainty has had a material impact upon businesses in Scotland. These are real and present business issues that are affecting business decisions and investment.  A further referendum on Scotland’s independence would be no different, and the more that can be done to mitigate the duration of this uncertainty for business, the better.  The Scottish Chambers of Commerce network will continue our process of engagement with businesses across Scotland to understand how this prospect could affect them and how their voices can be most effectively articulated during this process.

“In the current circumstances, businesses need as much certainty, stability and confidence as possible and it is the role of our Governments to provide it. The message from Scottish Chambers of Commerce members has been clear and consistent – our priority must be to create the conditions that will enable businesses to thrive. That means focus and resources must be directed towards greater strategic infrastructure investment, developing the skills we need to sustain growth, fair business taxation that does not limit entrepreneurship and investment and clear guidance on entering and trading in overseas markets – all of which must have a clear evidential basis. These are the priorities for business and must be for our Governments too.”

Commentary from Chamber business communities in Scotland is available from our colleagues at Scottish Chambers of Commerce. 

Ends

Notes to editors:

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) sits at the heart of a powerful network of 52 Accredited Chambers of Commerce across the UK, representing thousands of businesses of all sizes and within all sectors. Our Global Business Network connects exporters with nearly 40 markets around the world. For more information, visit: www.britishchambers.org.uk

Media contacts:

Allan Williams – Senior Press Manager

020 7654 5812 / 07920583381

Orla Hennessy – Press and Communications Officer

020 7654 5813 / 07825746812

Charandeep Singh – Head of External Relations, Scottish Chambers of Commerce

0141 204 8316 / 07984495871

Scottish Labour will vote against another independence referendum

image_pdfimage_print

Responding to Nicola Sturgeon’s speech calling for another independnce referendum, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said:

“Scotland is already divided enough. We do not want to be divided again, but that is exactly what another independence referendum would do.

“Two years ago, 85 per cent of Scotland’s voters took part in the independence referendum and the result was a clear vote to remain in the UK.

“With our country facing all of the uncertainty around the Tories’ reckless plans for a hard Brexit, the last thing we need is even more uncertainty and division.

“A clear majority of the people of Scotland voted to reject the SNP’s false hope and lies, and backed working together with the other nations of the UK.

“The reality is that leaving the UK would mean turbo-charged austerity for Scotland, putting the future of our schools and hospitals at risk.

“Labour believes that together we’re stronger. That is why we firmly oppose a second referendum and Scottish Labour MSPs will vote against the SNP’s proposals next week. We will stand up for the people of Scotland, who do not want a second independence referendum.

“Nicola Sturgeon could have made a passionate case for bringing powers from Brussels to Edinburgh, instead she did what she always does: sought grievance and division.

“Scotland deserves better than this. Nicola Sturgeon’s government is presiding over an education system with a growing gap between the richest and the rest, a health service that doesn’t have enough doctors and nurses, and an economy which sees more than 200,000 Scottish children live in poverty.

“Scotland would be a better place if the First Minister stopped dividing the country and started actually governing the country.”

If you agree with us, visit www.togetherstronger.scot to back our campaign against a second independence referendum.