Most interviews on BBC Radio 4 of business people, economic experts and farmers have to have questions designed to elicit negative forecasts about the impact of Brexit, whatever the main subject of the item.
This morning on the Farming programme in the middle of an interesting piece about modern pig farming techniques we got to the regular lets condemn Brexit slot. The expert being interviewed then gave a most interesting answer, saying that if we went over to WTO terms with no general trade and partnership deal the UK pig industry would clearly benefit, expanding its domestic output and sales as tariffs came in against imported pork and bacon. The interviewer hurried on from this embarrassing forecast.
It reminded me how the BBC often seems to think a negative forecast that says Brexit will damage this or that is “news” even though many of them have already been proved wrong by events, whereas any more optimistic forecast is played down. I don’t suppose they will be leading the news today on the estimate that UK farming could benefit from a WTO tariff regime and win back lost market share from continental producers. They certainly ignored the point I made in my lecture about the obvious boost to output and incomes in the UK that we will get once we have our money back to spend here at home. I have yet to hear interviews where people are asked how they would like to spend the Brexit bonus.
I would still prefer the EU to agree a Free Trade deal to avoid tariffs, but the interview this morning was a reminder that there would be some winners from tariffs as the UK is a heavy net importer at the moment. Consumers should be recompensed by tax cuts from the tariff revenue, and UK businesses competing with EU products would be beneficiaries. More free trade is a good thing, but it needs to be reciprocal and then all are winners.
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