If the answer to “Is our nuclear deterrent working?” depends on what Donald Trump had for breakfast, then the answer is no, it’s not. And our deterrent is not truly independent.
This should be keeping British defence planners awake at night. Yet it’s not being asked loudly enough in our public debate. Perhaps because Conservative- and Reform-supporting commentators don’t want to face up to the profound implications of Trump.
Our nuclear deterrent – the ultimate guarantor of our national security, the thing that successive governments of every stripe have described as the bedrock of Britain’s defence – is not fully ours.
The Trident missiles sitting in our Vanguard submarines are leased from the United States. Their maintenance depends on American facilities. And that means the operability of our deterrent ultimately depends on the goodwill of whoever sits in the Oval Office.
A few years ago, that didn’t feel like an issue. It certainly feels like one now.
Donald Trump has threatened to annex Greenland. He has bullied NATO allies. He has shown far more warmth towards the tyrant bombing Ukrainian cities – Vladimir Putin – than towards the brave Ukrainians defending them.
He and his White House lackeys have made it clear, repeatedly and unmistakably, that American support for European security is conditional – conditional on European countries doing what Trump wants, whether on trade, relations with China, or just being nice to him. Certainly nothing to do with the values and alliances that have kept us safe for eighty years.
While Trump is in charge, we certainly cannot rely on America as a dependable ally in the way we used to. And we can no longer bet our nation’s security on the hope that the US won’t produce new versions of Trump in the future.
So the real question is not whether we should build a sovereign British nuclear deterrent. The question is what happens if we don’t.
Trident missiles will need replacing in 2042. If we haven’t built our own capability before then, we’ll have no choice but to go back to the Americans. Who knows what terms they’ll offer? Who knows how much President Donald Trump Jr will charge us to lease US-made nuclear missiles? We cannot afford to leave our national security to chance.
I know building a sovereign capability sounds like an enormous undertaking. It is. It will cost billions over the next two decades.
But Britain can do it – because we’ve done it before. If France can maintain a fully independent deterrent, Britain certainly can.
Don’t forget, the UK developed and built our own nuclear weapons in 1952 – the third country in the world to do so. For decades, the RAF maintained a sovereign nuclear capability that owed nothing to Washington. We gave that up when America seemed like a rock-solid ally on which we could depend forever. When what we are seeing in the Oval Office today was unimaginable.
So instead of handing billions of taxpayers’ hard-earnt cash to the American defence and technology industry, let’s spend it here. Let’s invest in British science and manufacturing, build up our defence industry, and guarantee a fully independent deterrent we can truly rely on – no matter who sits in the Oval Office.
In the short term, that means developing our own capability to maintain existing Trident missiles here in the UK, ending our dependence on American facilities for servicing. In the longer term, when those missiles come to the end of their lives, we will have British-made replacements ready. But only if the government starts that work now.
Let me be clear. None of this means abandoning the goal of multilateral disarmament – something the Liberal Democrats have always been strongly committed to. But with Vladimir Putin sitting on a stockpile of more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, we must deal with the world as it is.
Trump’s reckless, unpredictable presidency – and the reality that we can no longer count on America as we once assumed we could – is a challenge we cannot ignore.
Britain’s response must include a deterrent that is genuinely, verifiably ours: not dependent on Trump, not dependent on whoever his successor may be, not hostage to the breakfast-table moods of any foreign leader.
True national security is about more than hardware. It is about alliances, values and Britain’s standing in the world. We want a Britain that is secure because it is respected, and respected because it is strong. And today, sadly, that means ending our dependence on Trump’s America.
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