Tag Archives: China

     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (February 3) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024.
 
     According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 2.4% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.9% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GDP increased by 2.5% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure (PCE) decreased by 0.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, narrowed from the decrease of 1.3% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, PCE decreased by 0.6% in real terms from 2023.
 
     Government consumption expenditure (GCE) measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 1.7% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GCE increased by 0.9% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF) decreased by 0.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a year earlier, as against the increase of 5.7% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, GDFCF increased by 2.4% in real terms over 2023.
 
     Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 1.2% in real terms over a year earlier, moderated from the increase of 4.0% in the third quarter. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 0.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with the increase of 2.8% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, total exports of goods and imports of goods recorded increases of 4.7% and 2.3% respectively in real terms over 2023.
 
     Exports of services rose further by 5.6% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier, after the increase of 2.9% in the third quarter. Imports of services increased by 8.7% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with the increase of 8.9% in the third quarter. For 2024 as a whole, exports of services and imports of services recorded increases of 4.8% and 11.8% respectively in real terms over 2023.
 
     On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 0.8% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024 when compared with the third quarter.
 
Commentary
 
     A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy grew at an accelerated pace in the fourth quarter of 2024 over a year earlier. According to the advance estimates, real GDP expanded by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP turned to growth of 0.8%.
 
     For 2024 as a whole, real GDP posted moderate growth of 2.5%, further to 3.2% growth in 2023. Total exports of goods resumed growth amid improved external demand. Exports of services continued to increase, driven by further growth of visitor arrivals and improvement in other cross-border economic activities. Overall investment expenditure showed a further increase as the economy continued to expand. However, private consumption expenditure recorded a slight decline, affected by the change in residents’ consumption patterns.
 
     Looking ahead, the Hong Kong economy is expected to register further growth in 2025 despite heightened uncertainties in the external environment. Trade protectionist policies implemented by the US may disrupt global trade flows and adversely affect Hong Kong’s goods exports. They may also lead to a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the US and keep the Hong Kong dollar strong for longer. Nevertheless, the Mainland’s proactive policy to boost its economy will help bolster market confidence and benefit a wide spectrum of economic segments in Hong Kong. The Central Government’s various measures benefitting Hong Kong, coupled with the SAR Government’s wide range of initiatives to promote economic growth, will also provide support to various economic activities.
 
     The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024, as well as the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 will be released on February 26, 2025 when the 2025-26 Budget is announced.
 
Further information
 
     The year-on-year percentage changes of GDP and selected major expenditure components in real terms from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024 are shown in Table 1.
 
     When more data become available, the C&SD will compile revised figures on GDP. The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 will be released at the C&SD website (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/scode250.html) and the Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component report (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1030001&scode=250) on February 26, 2025.
 
     For enquiries about statistics on GDP by expenditure component, please contact the National Income Branch (1) of the C&SD (Tel: 2582 5077 or email: gdp-e@censtatd.gov.hk). read more

The following is issued on behalf of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority:

     The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) published today (February 3) the results of Survey on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ Credit Conditions for the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the survey, SMEs’ credit conditions remained broadly stable.
      
     Regarding SMEs’ perception of banks’ credit approval stance relative to 6 months ago, excluding respondents who answered “no idea/ don’t know”, 70 per cent perceived a “similar” or “easier” credit approval stance in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 76 per cent in the previous quarter (Chart 1 in the Annex). 30 per cent perceived a “more difficult” credit approval stance, compared to 24 per cent in the previous quarter. The perception of a more difficult credit approval stance may not necessarily reflect actual difficulties faced by SMEs in obtaining bank credit as the perception could be affected by a number of factors, such as media/news reports, business conditions and opinions of relatives and friends.
      
     Among respondents with existing credit lines, 0 per cent reported a “tighter” banks’ stance, down further from 1 per cent in the previous quarter (Chart 2 in the Annex). In this survey, a tighter stance on existing credit lines denotes a range of possible measures or arrangements, such as reducing unused and used credit lines, raising the interest rate, imposing additional collateral requirements, or shortening loan tenor. Therefore, respondents’ indication of banks’ stance on existing credit lines may not directly reflect banks’ supply of credit to SMEs. 
      
     The survey also gauged the results of new credit applications from SMEs. 4 per cent of the respondents reported that they had applied for new bank credit during the fourth quarter of 2024. Among the respondents who had already known their application outcomes, 77 per cent reported fully or partially successful applications, down from 79 per cent in the previous quarter (Chart 3 in the Annex).
      
     Owing to small sample sizes of SMEs with existing credit lines (26 per cent of surveyed SMEs) and with new credit applications (4 per cent of surveyed SMEs) during the quarter, the results could be prone to large fluctuations, and hence should be interpreted with care.

About Survey on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ Credit Conditions
      
     In light of the importance of SMEs to the Hong Kong economy and concerns about potential funding difficulties facing SMEs over the past few years, the HKMA has appointed the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) to carry out this survey, starting from the third quarter of 2016. This survey is conducted on a quarterly basis, covering about 2 500 SMEs from different economic sectors each time. The results of this survey can help monitor the development of SMEs’ access to bank credit from a demand-side perspective.
      
     The results of this survey should be interpreted with caution. Similar to other opinion surveys, views collected in this survey may be affected by changes in sentiment due to idiosyncratic events that occurred over the survey period, which can make the results prone to fluctuations. Readers are advised to interpret the results together with other economic and financial information. In addition, views collected are limited to the expected direction of inter-quarter changes (e.g. “tighter”, “no change” or “easier”) without providing information about the magnitude of these changes.
      
     Detailed tables and technical information of this survey are published on the website of the HKPC (smecc.hkpc.org). read more

     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released the latest figures on retail sales today (February 3).

     The value of total retail sales in December 2024, provisionally estimated at $32.8 billion, decreased by 9.7% compared with the same month in 2023. The revised estimate of the value of total retail sales in November 2024 decreased by 7.3% compared with a year earlier.

     Of the total retail sales value in December 2024, online sales accounted for 7.2%. The value of online retail sales in that month, provisionally estimated at $2.4 billion, decreased by 17.2% compared with the same month in 2023. The revised estimate of online retail sales in November 2024 decreased by 7.2% compared with a year earlier.

     After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales in December 2024 decreased by 11.5% compared with a year earlier. The revised estimate of the volume of total retail sales in November 2024 decreased by 8.4% compared with a year earlier.

     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing December 2024 with December 2023, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 13.8%. This was followed by sales of other consumer goods not elsewhere classified (-2.9% in value); commodities in supermarkets (-3.1%); wearing apparel (-11.1%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-0.6%); commodities in department stores (-8.9%); medicines and cosmetics (-2.2%); electrical goods and other consumer durable goods not elsewhere classified (-20.2%); motor vehicles and parts (-36.3%); fuels (-11.2%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-4.9%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-2.2%); furniture and fixtures (-22.0%); books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (-9.6%); and optical shops (-7.5%).

     Based on the seasonally adjusted series, the provisional estimate of the value of total retail sales decreased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the preceding quarter, while the provisional estimate of the volume of total retail sales decreased by 0.2%.

     For 2024 as a whole, the value of total retail sales was provisionally estimated at $376.8 billion, decreased by 7.3% in value and 9.0% in volume compared with 2023. The value of online retail sales was provisionally estimated at $31.7 billion, decreased by 2.6% over 2023.
 
     Analysed by broad type of retail outlet in descending order of the provisional estimate of the value of sales and comparing the whole year of 2024 with the whole year of 2023, the value of sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts decreased by 14.5%. This was followed by sales of commodities in supermarkets (-1.5% in value); wearing apparel (-10.6%); food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-3.2%); electrical goods and other consumer durable goods not elsewhere classified (-11.3%); commodities in department stores (-13.9%); motor vehicles and parts (-17.2%); fuels (-11.4%); footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories (-7.5%); furniture and fixtures (-14.4%); Chinese drugs and herbs (-14.8%); and optical shops (-13.6%).

     On the other hand, the value of sales of other consumer goods not elsewhere classified increased by 0.4% in 2024 compared with 2023. This was followed by sales of medicines and cosmetics (+4.4% in value); and books, newspapers, stationery and gifts (+4.7%).

Commentary

     A government spokesman said that the value of total retail sales declined further in December from a year earlier, partly reflecting the impact of residents’ increased outbound trips during the holidays. For the fourth quarter as a whole, the value of total retail sales fell by 6.7% year-on-year, narrower than the 9.6% decrease in the preceding quarter.

     Looking ahead, the spokesman said that the near-term performance of the retail sector would continue to be affected by the change in consumption patterns of visitors and residents. Nevertheless, the introduction of various measures by the Central Government to boost the Mainland economy and benefit Hong Kong, together with the SAR Government’s proactive efforts to promote tourism development and boost market sentiment, as well as increasing employment earnings, would benefit the retail sector.

Further information

     Table 1 presents the revised figures on value index and value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2024 as well as the provisional figures for December 2024. The provisional figures on the value of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet as well as the corresponding year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2024 are also shown.

     Table 2 presents the revised figures on value of online retail sales for November 2024 as well as the provisional figures for December 2024. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2024 are also shown.
 
     Table 3 presents the revised figures on volume index of retail sales for all retail outlets and by broad type of retail outlet for November 2024 as well as the provisional figures for December 2024. The provisional figures on year-on-year changes for the whole year of 2024 are also shown.

     Table 4 shows the movements of the value and volume of total retail sales in terms of the year-on-year rate of change for a month compared with the same month in the preceding year based on the original series, and in terms of the rate of change for a three-month period compared with the preceding three-month period based on the seasonally adjusted series.

     The classification of retail establishments follows the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification (HSIC) Version 2.0, which is used in various economic surveys for classifying economic units into different industry classes.

     These retail sales statistics measure the sales receipts in respect of goods sold by local retail establishments and are primarily intended for gauging the short-term business performance of the local retail sector. Data on retail sales are collected from local retail establishments through the Monthly Survey of Retail Sales (MRS). Local retail establishments with and without physical shops are covered in MRS and their sales, both through conventional shops and online channels, are included in the retail sales statistics.

     The retail sales statistics cover consumer spending on goods but not on services (such as those on housing, catering, medical care and health services, transport and communication, financial services, education and entertainment) which account for over 50% of the overall consumer spending. Moreover, they include spending on goods in Hong Kong by visitors but exclude spending outside Hong Kong by Hong Kong residents. Hence they should not be regarded as indicators for measuring overall consumer spending.

     Users interested in the trend of overall consumer spending should refer to the data series of private consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a major component of the Gross Domestic Product published at quarterly intervals. Compiled from a wide range of data sources, PCE covers consumer spending on both goods (including goods purchased from all channels) and services by Hong Kong residents whether locally or abroad. Please refer to the C&SD publication “Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Component” for more details.

     More detailed statistics are given in the “Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales”. Users can browse and download this publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1080003&scode=530).

     Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Distribution Services Statistics Section of C&SD (Tel: 3903 7400; email : mrs@censtatd.gov.hk). read more

Attention Duty Announcers, Radio and TV Stations:      Please broadcast the following special announcement immediately, and repeat it at frequent intervals:      With the approach of cold weather,… read more

Attention duty announcers, radio and TV stations:      Please broadcast the following special announcement immediately, and repeat it at frequent intervals when the Cold Weather Warning is in force:    &nbs… read more