Jul12017

Muddled messages from Central Banks

John Redwood MP

This week the ECB seemed to hint that Euro rates might have to rise and bond buying be reined in given the uptick in inflation and some recovery in activity. The Euro strengthened, then the ECB seemed to stress again continuing easy money and negative rates.

Meanwhile the Bank of England Governor said UK rates would stay low, only to be followed by his Chief Economist arguing that we might need an earlier rise. This led to a revised view from the Governor not ruling out some earlier rise. The pound rallied more against the dollar as a result. The pound has now risen 8% against the dollar from the low. All those who think UK inflation is driven by sterling will presumably now revise their inflation forecasts down, though they do not do so noisily as they did when get pound was falling.

Does any of this matter? Yes it does. Markets which determine mortgage rates and other real world matters have been unsettled by wobbly guidance from mighty institutions that have great impact on the rest of us. They need consistent and clear guidance, as the Fed successfully gave in the run up to its rate rises, and is now seeking to give in its wish to cut back the amount of created money and bonds it holds.

The Bank of England wants to cut personal borrowing in general and car loans in particular. This is seeking cuts and tightening before the recovery is well advanced. It comes on top of the damage the large increases in VED on dearer cars have caused, and the adverse impact of high Stamp duties and Buy to let changes on the housing market.

It has been a good couple of weeks for those of us who think the main determinant of currency moves is actual and expected interest rate differentials, not Brexit. The UK authorities are tightening prematurely, so expect less inflation and a bit less growth as a result.With expanding numbers of jobs, a short term spike in inflation and more growth to come allowing current levels of consumer borrowing would be a sensible approach. Just as the Bank tells us it is looking through the inflation spike, so should consumers who have jobs.

Jul12017

HK cannot afford to be torn apart by internal rift: Xi

East Asia

Hong Kong cannot afford to be torn apart by reckless moves or internal rift amid the intense global competition, President Xi Jinping warned Saturday.

Hong Kong is a plural society with “different views and even major differences on some specific issues,” he acknowledged.

However, “making everything political or deliberately creating differences and provoking confrontation will not resolve the problems,” Xi said. “On the contrary, it can only severely hinder Hong Kong’s economic and social development.”

“Hong Kong is an affluent society, but it also faces enormous challenges posed by profound changes in the global economic environment and the increasingly intense international competition,” he said.

Xi sounded the caution when attending a gathering here celebrating the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland, and the inaugural ceremony of the fifth-term government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).

“It is imperative to always maintain a harmonious and stable social environment,” he said, noting that “harmony brings good fortune, while discord leads to misfortune.”

The concept of “one country, two systems” gives expression to the vision of peace and harmony in the Chinese culture, and it embodies a very important tenet, namely, seeking broad common ground while setting aside major differences, Xi said.

“On the part of the central government, we are ready to talk to anyone who loves the country, loves Hong Kong and genuinely supports the principle of ‘one country, two systems’ and the Basic Law of the HKSAR, no matter what political views or position he or she may hold.”

Jul12017

Xi draws ‘red line’ for handling mainland-HK relations

East Asia

President Xi Jinping Saturday drew the “red line” for handling relations between the mainland and Hong Kong, warning against attempts to undermine national sovereignty or challenge the central government’s power.

“Any attempt to endanger national sovereignty and security, challenge the power of the central government and the authority of the Basic Law of the HKSAR or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland is an act that crosses the red line, and is absolutely impermissible,” he said.

Xi made the remarks at a gathering celebrating the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland and the inaugural ceremony of the fifth-term government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Jul12017

Federica Mogherini to host a meeting with Presidents Vučić and T

EU

Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, will host in Brussels on Monday morning– following bilateral meetings in the margins of South East European Cooperation Process (SEECP) Summit in Dubrovnik tonight – an informal meeting between the Presidents Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia and Hashim Thaçi of Kosovo. They will have an exchange of views on the continuation of the dialogue for normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia as well as the broader developments in the Western Balkans region.

Jul12017

Press Releases: The 120-day Suspension of the Refugee Admissions Program

United States • Democrats • OECD – United States • Republicans • White House

Taken Question

Office of the Spokesperson

Washington, DC

June 30, 2017

Attribution is on-the-record from Spokesperson Heather Nauert.

Question:  When did the 120-day suspension begin, and when will the review be completed?

Answer:  Per the Presidential Memorandum of June 14, the 120-day suspension on refugee admissions began June 29, and the review of the refugee admissions and adjudication process outlined in the EO will be completed during that time.

The 120-day suspension does not apply to those determined to be “formally scheduled for transit” as of that time.



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