Jul252017

Yves Mersch: The ECB’s monetary policy stance

EU

The global recovery is firming and broadening. And the ongoing economic expansion in the euro area provides confidence.

But while inflation will gradually head to levels in line with our definition of price stability in the mid-term, it has yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics. Headline inflation is dampened by the weakness in energy prices. Moreover, measures of underlying inflation remain overall at subdued levels. Therefore, as I pointed out yesterday in my oral presentation at the Bank Negara Malaysia Monetary Policy Conference, a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to gradually build up and support headline inflation developments in the medium term.

Let me provide you with some details of the ongoing recovery. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.6%, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of 2017, after 0.5% in the last quarter of 2016. Incoming data, notably survey results, continue to point to solid, broad-based growth in the period ahead. The pass-through of our monetary policy measures is supporting domestic demand and has facilitated the deleveraging process. The recovery in investment continues to benefit from very favourable financing conditions and improvements in corporate profitability. Private consumption is supported by employment gains, which are also benefiting from past labour market reforms, and by increasing household wealth. Moreover, the global recovery should increasingly lend support to trade and euro area exports. However, economic growth prospects continue to be dampened by a slow pace of implementation of structural reforms, particularly in product markets, and by remaining balance sheet adjustment needs in a number of sectors, notwithstanding ongoing improvements.

The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook might be upward in the short term, but are overall broadly balanced. On the one hand, the current positive cyclical momentum increases the chances of a stronger than expected economic upswing. On the other hand, downside risks primarily relating to global factors continue to exist.

The thread of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play. Prices pressures in the early stages of the pricing chain remain strong but have still not transmitted to the later stages. Euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.3% in June, down slightly from 1.4% in May, mainly due to lower energy price inflation. Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to remain around current levels in the coming months. In these conditions, we can be more assured about the return of inflation to our objective than we were a few years ago. At the same time, measures of underlying inflation remain low and have yet to show convincing signs of a pick-up, as domestic cost pressures, including wage growth, are still subdued: although compensation per hour worked is rising, compensation per employee remains flat. This divergence goes back, at least in part, to the increased fragmentation of labour time. In the labour market technological advance, in particular the use of the internet allows for more services being offered with less intermediation at lower prices.

Underlying inflation in the euro area is expected to rise only gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion and the corresponding gradual absorption of economic slack.

Also broad money (M3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with an annual rate of growth of 5.0% in May 2017, after 4.9% in April. As in previous months, annual growth in M3 was mainly supported by its most liquid components, with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 expanding at an annual rate of 9.3% in May 2017, unchanged from April.

The recovery in the growth of loans to the private sector observed since the beginning of 2014 is proceeding. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations remained stable at 2.4% in May 2017, while the annual growth rate of loans to households increased to 2.6%, from 2.4% in April. The euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2017 indicates that credit standards for loans to enterprises and loans to households for house purchase have further eased and that loan growth continues to be supported by increasing demand. The pass-through of the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 continues to significantly support borrowing conditions for firms and households and credit flows across the euro area.

The cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the need for a continued very substantial degree of monetary accommodation to secure a sustained return of inflation rates towards levels that are below, but close to, 2%.

In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute decisively to strengthening the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. Political winds are becoming tailwinds. There is newfound confidence in the reform process, and newfound support for European cohesion, which could help unleash pent-up demand and investment, if confirmed by decisive action.

Still, the implementation of structural reforms needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost productivity growth. Regarding fiscal policies, all countries would benefit from intensifying efforts towards achieving a more growth-friendly composition of public finances. A full, transparent and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and of the macroeconomic imbalances procedure over time and across countries remains essential to bolster the resilience of the euro area economy.

Jul252017

Press release: Simon Hart MP joins the Committee on Standards in Public Life

HM Government

Simon Hart MP has been appointed as the Conservative party member of the independent Committee on Standards in Public life.

The Committee on Standards in Public Life advises the Prime Minister on ethical standards across the whole of public life in the UK. It monitors and reports on issues relating to the standards of conduct of all public office holders.

The Committee is made up of an independent Chair, 4 independent members appointed by the Prime Minister following open competition in accordance with the Public Appointments Governance Code, and 3 political members appointed by the Prime Minister on the recommendation of the leaders of the main parties.

The Committee on Standards in Public Life is currently conducting a short review of the issue of intimidation experienced by Parliamentary candidates, and the broader implications of this for other holders of public office, following a request from the Prime Minister. The Committee has published the terms of reference for this review and published a call for evidence yesterday.

Notes to Editors

  1. Interview requests and media enquiries should go to Maggie O’Boyle on 07880 740627.
  2. Simon Hart is Conservative MP for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, first elected in May 2010. Since being elected Simon has been a member of the Political and Constitutional Reform Select Committee, the Welsh Affairs Select Committee and the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee. He has also been a member/Chair of several APPGs including Tourism in Wales, Learning outside the Classroom, Marine Energy & Tidal Lagoons, EU/US Trade, and others. Additionally, Simon sits on the UK Delegation of the OSCE PA and is Chairman of the United & Cecil Club. Prior to being elected he was Chief Executive of the Countryside Alliance, and remains Chairman of the organisation.
  3. Simon Hart MP replaces Dame Angela Watkinson DBE who stood down at the 2017 election.
  4. The other members of the Committee are: Lord (Paul) Bew, Chairman, Rt Hon Dame Margaret Beckett DBE MP, Dr Jane Martin CBE, Sheila Drew Smith OBE, Jane Ramsey, Monisha Shah, and Rt Hon Lord (Andrew) Stunell.

Jul252017

Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol’s role should expand says review

Welsh Government

Last year the Education Secretary ordered a review into the body that supports the development of Welsh-medium provision within higher education, enabling more students to study a variety of subjects through the medium of Welsh.

The task and finish group, chaired by Delyth Evans, has made a number of recommendations, including:

  • The role of the Coleg should be extended to be a recognised national strategic body for developing the Welsh language across the higher education, further education and work-based learning sectors.
  • The Coleg should focus its marketing messages on promoting the Welsh language as a skill in the workplace, rather than marketing the Coleg as a separate body.
  • It should focus on supporting schools by developing marketing materials for use by teachers, pupils and parents.
  • Support Welsh-medium, bilingual and English medium schools.
  • Redirect its promotional work to reach younger pupils in year 9 and 10, before they begin to make decisions about their post-16 education.
  • Coordinate its marketing work closely with the marketing departments of individual further and higher education institutions to ensure clear and consistent messages to school pupils regarding the value of the Welsh language.
  • The Coleg should continue to be funded directly by the Welsh Government.

Chair of the group Delyth Evans said:

“It was a pleasure for me to be the chair of this review and I am very grateful to the members of the group and to the organisations and individuals who contributed to the work. 

“I hope the report and recommendations will assist to strengthen Welsh language provision across the higher education, further education and work-based learning sectors in the years to come.”

Education Secretary Kirsty Williams said:

“I would like to thank Delyth and the entire group for their thoughtful and constructive report.  I will now study the findings closely and provide a full response in due course.

“The recommendations cover a range of new proposals to further develop Welsh-medium study post-16 for everyone and they offer a number of exciting opportunities.”

Jul252017

News story: Saturn surprises as Cassini continues its Grand Finale

HM Government

This observation, which means the true length of Saturn’s day is still unknown, is one of several early findings from the final phase of Cassini’s mission, known as the Grand Finale.

Other recent science highlights include promising hints about the structure and composition of the icy rings, along with high-resolution images of the rings and Saturn’s atmosphere.

Cassini is now in the 15th of 22 weekly orbits that pass through the narrow gap between Saturn and its rings. The spacecraft began its finale on 26 April and will continue its dives until 15 September, when it will make a mission-ending plunge into Saturn’s atmosphere.

The UK has involvement on 4 instruments onboard the Cassini spacecraft, including as the Principal Investigator for the magnetometer, built to measure planetary and inter-planetary magnetic fields and developed by a team at Imperial College, London.

Professor Michele Dougherty, Cassini magnetometer investigation lead at Imperial College, London, said:

The instrument and the spacecraft were originally designed to be in orbit at Saturn for four years and 13 years later we are still there and everything is in really good shape! What we should remember is that neither Cassini nor the instruments were designed to carry out these Grand Finale orbits, for the magnetometer we have had to roll the spacecraft on a number of occasions in order to get the most accurate measurements.

The final critical rolls are taking place today (25 July 2017). The spectacular science being revealed is a testament to the fantastic spacecraft and science teams that have enabled these Grand Finale orbits to happen. The observations to date from the magnetic field are very surprising and certainly not as we expected.

Early Magnetic Field Analysis

Based on data collected by Cassini’s magnetometer instrument, Saturn’s magnetic field appears to be surprisingly well aligned with the planet’s rotation axis. The tilt is much smaller than 0.06 degrees – which is the lower limit the magnetometer data placed on the value prior to the start of the Grand Finale.

This observation is at odds with scientists’ theoretical understanding of how magnetic fields are generated. Planetary magnetic fields are understood to require some degree of tilt in order to sustain currents flowing through the liquid metal deep inside the planet (in Saturn’s case, this is thought to be liquid metallic hydrogen). With no tilt, the currents would eventually subside and the field would disappear.

Any tilt to the magnetic field would make the daily wobble of the planet’s deep interior observable, thus revealing the true length of Saturn’s day, which has so far proved elusive.

Professor Dougherty said:

The tilt seems to be much smaller than we had previously estimated and quite challenging to explain. We have not been able to resolve the length of day at Saturn so far, but we’re still working on it.

The lack of a tilt may eventually be rectified with further data. Dougherty and her team believe some aspect of the planet’s deep atmosphere might be masking the true internal magnetic field. The team will continue to collect and analyze data for the remainder of the mission, including during the final plunge into Saturn.

The magnetometer data will also be evaluated in concert with Cassini’s measurements of Saturn’s gravity field collected during the Grand Finale. Early analysis of the gravity data collected so far shows discrepancies compared with parts of the leading models of Saturn’s interior, suggesting something unexpected about the planet’s structure is awaiting discovery.

Sampling Saturn

In addition to its investigation of the planet’s interior, Cassini has now obtained the first samples of the planet’s atmosphere and main rings, which promise new insights about their composition and structure. The spacecraft’s cosmic dust analyzer (CDA) instrument has collected many nanometer-size ring particles while flying through the planet-ring gap, while its ion and neutral mass spectrometer (INMS) has sniffed the outermost atmosphere, called the exosphere.

During the spacecraft’s final five orbits and final plunge, the INMS instrument will obtain samples deeper down in the atmosphere. Cassini will skim through the outer atmosphere during these passes, and INMS is expected to send particularly important data on the composition of Saturn’s atmosphere during the final plunge.

In addition, Cassini’s imaging cameras have returned some of the highest-resolution views of the rings and planet they have ever obtained. For example, close-up views of Saturn’s C ring – which features mysterious bright bands called plateaus – reveal surprisingly different textures in neighboring sections of the ring.

Launched in 1997, Cassini has orbited Saturn since arriving in 2004 for an up-close study of the planet, its rings and moons, and its vast magnetosphere. Cassini has made numerous discoveries, including a global ocean with indications of hydrothermal activity within the moon Enceladus, and liquid methane seas on another moon, Titan.

The Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, ESA (European Space Agency) and the Italian Space Agency. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of Caltech in Pasadena, California, manages the mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington. JPL designed, developed and assembled the Cassini orbiter.

Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute

Jul252017

Draft Local Outcome Improvement Plan – Consultation

Fraser Macpherson
From the Dundee Partnership Team :

Our plans to improve Dundee

The Dundee Partnership is determined to make Dundee a more successful and fairer city and we’ve been preparing our ideas and plans about how we will do this over the next ten years. 

We’ve prepared a draft Local Outcome Improvement Plan for 2017-26 that builds on the ongoing extensive community engagement undertaken by partners and agencies across the city.     It also incorporates the results of the Engage Dundee process.    So we’ve been listening carefully to your views and we hope that this plan shows that we know what your priorities are.   Read the draft here.

But this is still a consultation draft so at this stage we are describing our city, the economic and social outcomes we are determined to achieve, and setting out our priorities for action.
Over the next few months we will be collecting the most accurate and informative performance indicators to help us map out our progress and setting targets to stretch us to do better. Our final version will be published by October 2017.

We are already thinking about some of the ways we can improve it by doing things like –

–      making it shorter and clearer 
–      summarising our strengths and achievements as a city as well as the challenges we face
–      pulling out lots of information that is in other plans and providing links to them instead
–      saying more about how the third and private sectors do and will contribute to improving Dundee
–      spelling out our ideas around green spaces and biodiversity

Please let us know what you think by 18 August. To gather your views, we’ve prepared a feedback form that can be found on the Dundee Partnership website here, it can be completed online or downloaded for completion and emailed to us at dundee.partnership@dundeecity.gov.uk or hard copies posted to Dundee Partnership Team, Floor 4, 5 City Square, Dundee, DD1 3BG.