Research and analysis: Future of the sea: implications from opening Arctic Sea routes

Updated: Added a link to Dr Nathanael Melia’s blogpost.

This report summarises the evidence for the projected loss of Arctic sea ice and opening of shipping routes due to climate change. It explores how these changes will make trans-Arctic shipping routes more navigable and profitable, and explores the resulting challenges and opportunities for the UK.

It was commissioned as part of the Foresight Future of the sea project.

Labour’s silence on Venezuela

The sound of silence can be deafening. The Labour leadership has gone quiet when it comes to praising the Chavistas of Venezuela, who they used to tell us had got it right. The Chavez model of giving more and more to the poor was popular and worked for a bit, until the state ran out of money to give. Under Mr Maduro they have resorted to the printing presses to increase benefits, with the result that they have triggered a massive inflation and a collapse of the currency. Venezuela is very dependent on imports for food, medicines and other essentials. It now suffers chronic shortages of basic goods owing to the shortage of hard currency to buy what is needed. It is often the poor who suffer most from the shortages, as they cannot afford the very high black market prices that are the alternative.

Venezuela was once a rich country, and should be so again given its huge oil reserves. Mr Chavez purged the state oil company of skilled managers and executives, replacing them with his supporters. He took large sums out of the state oil company revenues for social purposes, leaving the business starved of cash and talent to maintain and develop the assets. When the lower oil price hit the company was already struggling. Venezuela was 95% dependent on oil for its export revenues, leaving it badly stretched when oil output and the value of the turnover fell.

Like many such regimes the Venezuelan government blames everyone but itself for its plight. It blames the USA, who under President Obama imposed sanctions on the country and saw it as a threat to US policy. It blames the Opposition, who have at times pursued their cause with violence though they would say it is the regime’s friends amongst the security forces and colectivos who drag them into fights. It blames the rich for pre-empting too much of the economic activity, whilst often seeking to enrich its own supporters. It blames private sector companies, alleging they hoard goods to create scarcity and higher prices.

The government thinks the answer is political. They see the way forward as the elimination of opposition. They have arrested two of the Opposition leaders. They are seeking ways to shut down or undermine the Opposition led National Assembly. They have elected a Constituent Assembly against the wishes of the Opposition to draw up changes to the constitution, which many suspect will be used as a means of delaying the next Presidential and other elections, and will be looking for ways to eclipse the opposition.

None of this will change the fundamental problems of too much created money chasing too few goods, and the lack of international confidence in the domestic Venezuelan currency. Venezuela’s economic model is badly broken. They have demonstrated for all the world to see that printing too much money causes hyperinflation. Taxing and controlling the rich and the private sector too much stifles investment and drives it away from the country. Preferring unaccountable and absolute power over democratic and accountable power leads to violence, a bitterly divided society, and a rolling political crisis.

Does Labour still think this is the good alternative model we should be following?

Remarks at the opening of the Mitchell Freeway extension

PRIME MINISTER:

Thank you. Thank you all very much and we are on Noongar country and we acknowledge their custodianship of this land for time out of mind and honour their elders past and present here today.

What a great piece of new infrastructure this is. Six kilometers – this is a $216 million project, with $173 million provided from the Commonwealth Government as part of our commitment, part of our practical commitment to make up for the unfair distribution of the GST to Western Australia.

This shows that my government, the Coalition Government, the Liberal National Party Government in Canberra recognises that Western Australia has not had a fair deal on the GST and has acted to make up for that.

Now this is part of it but most importantly, what this is going to do is for thousands of people here in Perth, it is going to save them hours and hours out of their lives in congestion and in traffic delays.

It’s going to be so important, for Christian and Ian, for your constituents in Pearce and Moore and it’s a great testament of course to the leadership that Paul Fletcher and my colleagues have shown in the Federal Government in working with the state government.

The Premier and I had a very cordial and constructive discussion last night about infrastructure and how we want to build more infrastructure in Perth, how we want to do a City Deal that will enable us to do more and build more, use more innovative approaches to financing.

We want to put more dollars to work in infrastructure here in Western Australia and right across Australia because we know that roads like this and rail like that – I actually like being interrupted by a train going past because I’m a great believer in mass transit, so that’s good – it underlines the frequency of the service, it is very impressive I might say, minister. So that’s good. But we are committed to this, to infrastructure.

This is a great project here. I want to congratulate all the workers and the contractors who have done the work on this, brought it in on time and under budget.

There goes another one of your very fine trains – that’s good.

Well done. It’s going to ensure that people have more time to spend with their families and less time caught in traffic.

It is a vital part of the infrastructure that this city needs.

It is a sign, a testament, an absolute demonstration of our commitment to putting dollars to work to build more infrastructure in Western Australia in partnership with the state government and doing so in a way that improves the liveability and the amenity of this great city. A great place to live.

We’re determined to work with the people of Western Australia, with the Government of Western Australia, to ensure that it becomes an even greater place to live and work – driving economic growth, liveability and of course, all of the amenity that people expect and are entitled to expect in a great city like this.

So I’m delighted to be here. I want to congratulate everybody involved for the great work. The politicians have marshalled the money, the taxpayers have paid their taxes, but ultimately the workers have got in there and done the job and brought it in on time and under budget.

So congratulations. I’m delighted to be here with you all, it’s a wonderful project.

Thank you.

[ENDS]