• New methodology introduced following urgent review
• Deaths in people with COVID-19 that occurred within 28 days of testing positive will be published daily
• The approach, endorsed by the four UK Chief Medical Officers, will be used by all 4 UK nations

The 4 UK Chief Medical Officers have recommended that a single, consistent measure is adopted for daily reporting of deaths across the UK. The UK government and the devolved administrations have agreed to publish the number of deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive lab-confirmed COVID test result on a daily basis.

This will provide accurate data on the immediate impact of recent epidemic activity. The methodology has been peer reviewed by independent academics to ensure that the best possible indicators are used, and that the methods are applied consistently across the nations of the UK.

PHE and the devolved administrations have worked closely with the UK Statistics Authority on these new measures and the new approach is in line with advice from the statistics regulator.

In their review, Public Health England considered epidemiological evidence to see how likely it was that COVID-19 was a contributory factor to a death at different points in time after a positive test.

Analysis of data in England found 96% of deaths occurred within 60 days or had COVID-19 on the death certificate. 88% of deaths occurred within 28 days.

As of Wednesday August 12, the number of all deaths in patients testing positive for COVID-19 in the UK within 28 days was 41,329.

Professor John Newton, Director of Health Improvement at Public Health England, said:

The way we count deaths in people with COVID-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic.

Our analysis of the long-term impact of the infection now allows us to move to new methods, which will give us crucial information about both recent trends and overall mortality burden due to COVID-19.

In England, a new weekly set of figures will also be published, showing the number of deaths that occur within 60 days of a positive test. Deaths that occur after 60 days will also be added to this figure if COVID-19 appears on the death certificate. This will provide an additional measure of the impact of the disease over time.

This follows concerns raised by academics from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine about the original measure, which counted anyone who had ever tested positive as a COVID-associated death. They called for the introduction of a 21-day measure in order to accurately assess the impact of the virus on mortality rates.

The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has analysed the first Quinquennial Review of Flood Re. The organisation is a joint initiative between the insurance industry and the government.

Affordable insurance

Flood Re, established by the Water Act 2014, is a reinsurance company which aims to make the flood cover part of household insurance policies more widely available and affordable.

The scheme is funded by home insurance providers who must pay into Flood Re. Householders buy their home insurance in the usual way and in turn Flood Re covers flood risks.

The organisation sets out several plans to make the UK more resilient to flooding. It has a range of proposals including, for example, its suggested approach to build back better . This is where claims payments can include an additional amount for resilient or resistant repair beyond the cost of original damage.

On 14 July 2020, the government announced a number of specific changes to the Flood Re scheme – some which go further than Flood Re’s proposals. Subject to consultation, these will aim to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Flood Re scheme and encourage greater uptake of Property Flood Resilience among UK households at high risk of flooding.

GAD’s work

As part of its remit, Flood Re is required to review its work at least once every 5 years and report the results to the government. The 2019 Quinquennial Review (QQR) was its first such assessment. It was carried out before the end of the 5-year period and reported in July 2019.

GAD reviewed the detailed supplemental report ‘Actuarial Analysis of QQR Proposals’ on behalf of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. We scrutinised and reviewed the methodology and assumptions Flood Re applied in its QQR testing.

Feasibility testing

Nick Clitheroe, who oversaw GAD’s review said: “This was an important milestone for Flood Re. It marked the midway point of the organisation’s first 5 years. It also set out recommendations and plans for the second QQR period from 2021 to 2026.

“We analysed and tested the feasibility of the package of proposals. We found that based on the modelling and wide range of scenarios, the financial elements of the QQR recommendations are affordable.

“GAD’s role was central to the financial probity of Flood Re’s Quinquennial Review. We also looked at investment proposals and agreed with Flood Re that some changes could help mitigate the impact of inflation.”