The detail is worse in the Agreement

So as we feared the ECJ has a big role, we cannot unilaterally leave the customs union and may have to stay in for a long time if there is no mutually agreed exit deal. All the government has achieved is the elimination of the Article 50 right to leave we currently enjoy.

Our negotiating power would be dramatically reduced by giving away the money in advance of a deal, and binding ourselves into the customs partnership and law codes of the EU. Remain voters will say being in the EU is better than this, and Leave voters say this is not Brexit. As yesterday in the Commons made clear there is nowhere near a majority for this one sided and damaging Withdrawal Agreement

The Irish backstop treats one part of the UK differently from the rest and is already being used by the SNP against the Union. The huge payments buy us nothing we want and mainly relate to staying in for longer than we wish. Why would the EU bother to agree a good future partnership when they will control us and take our cash without such a deal?

The resignation of 7 more following the 8 who resigned after Chequers must be a record number for a single policy. It makes the defeat of these proposals even more likely as they will all presumably vote against.




The loss of two Brexit Secretaries is more than carelessness

The government has centralised the Brexit negotiations through the PM and Cabinet Office. Senior officials have negotiated under the PM’s authority bypassing the Brexit department and sidelining the good negotiating and political advice of two Brexit Secretaries. Cabinet members were not sufficiently involved or informed in crucial issues affecting the whole government and their departments.No wonder there have been so many resignations. Proper process has been ignored with bad results.




Meeting with Berkshire Wildlife Trust

I met representatives of the Wildlife Trust at Parliament yesterday. I said I was keen to see higher standards of animal welfare, to see more trees planted around the country and to seek a local plan for the future that decelerates the rate of housing development. We need to protect more of our countryside, and to keep wild areas where animals can find protected habitats.




This is no deal – this is just a very bad Withdrawal Agreement to make us pay and bind us in

So the Cabinet took much longer to discuss the deal than the PM wanted. The news conference was cancelled and the statement at 5pm happened more than two hours late. The awaiting EU Ambassadors in Brussels lined up to welcome the Cabinet decision were stood down. Maybe a dozen Cabinet members expressed grave misgivings about the deal and whether it could to sold to Parliament and the public. The Prime Minister had to say it was the collective view of Cabinet to press on, unable to say it was the unanimous or united view.

The Parliamentary arithmetic is clear. The Withdrawal Agreement could only pass into law if Labour wish that to happen. If they oppose as they say they will, there will the DUP, and around 100 Conservative MPs unlikely to vote for it. Of the Conservatives 51 are Eurosceptics who have made public promises to oppose against a 3 line whip, and around 12 Remain Conservatives also likely to be against. Labour has said it does see it as a good deal worthy of support.

The legal position is also clear. A motion of the House could not strike down legislation. Parliament has already legislated to leave on 29 March 2019. It would require new legislation to amend and repeal the EU Withdrawal Notification Act and the EU Withdrawal Act to stop us leaving next March.

There are four main arguments against the Withdrawal Agreement. It is far too dear, buying us nothing for the money. It binds us back into the customs union and single market we promised to leave, with no guarantee we can get out again. It damages the Union by treating Northern Ireland differently, leading to demands for Scotland also to have different treatment. It stops us negotiating new trade treaties with the rest of the world. I will comment in more detail on the text in due course when we have completed analysis of it, but the main outlines of the so called deal are clear. This is not a deal – it is a Withdrawal Agreement which keeps us in and costs us a fortune.




German GDP falls in 3rd quarter

Whilst UK Gdp rose by 0.6% in Q3, it fell in Germany by 0.2%. I don’t expect the BBC to say that’s because of Brexit, though they would have done if it had been the other way round!