The Bank of England losses stop a growth policy

I

 

The scale of Bank losses

In the budget figures we were told the Bank of England’s bond buying and selling will end up losing us £102 bn. In its early phases the Bank sent the Treasury profits of £124 bn, so on these OBR estimates there are astonishing total losses coming of £226 bn. As of March 2024  the Treasury had had to pay the Bank £49 bn to cover losses to date, so another £179 bn could become due if the OBR has  got a forecast right.

These losses are huge and unacceptable. A substantial portion of the loss is avoidable. The government needs to have urgent discussions with the Bank to slash these costs. Other major Central Banks including the US are not receiving any bail outs from Treasury whilst  China and Switzerland  did not buy too many bonds in the first place. The ECB  which made similar mistakes with bonds to the UK is now containing the losses much better with a different approach.

There are two simple changes needed.

1 Stop selling bonds in the market at low prices. The bonds repay on maturity when the Bank will get more for them than current prices, so stop selling.

  1. Copy the ECB approach to payments of interest to commercial banks on their deposits at the Central Bank . The Bank of England is losing too much on the costs of remunerating the reserves placed with it by  the commercial banks compared to the interest it gets on the bonds. As the rate paid to banks is a managed rate fixed by the Central Bank cut the losses.

These changes would lead to a good improvement in  the public sector deficit x Bank of England, the measurement they use to control the economy, and to lower mortgage rates.



Bernanke needs to be radical in his review of the Bank of England

Ben Bernanke knows a lot about Central banks getting things wrong. On his watch at the Fed he saw inflation hit 5.6% in 2008 before watching it collapse along with important parts of the banking system. He was there for  the banking crash and great recession of 2008-10. He pioneered the money printing and bond buying policy that lies behind the wild ride the UK has experienced in inflation and growth 2019-24.

Recommending the same people on the MPC be asked to publish their own differing forecasts will not solve the problem, as there is too much groupthink on the MPC. Telling them to publish a range of scenarios does not help much either, because what we need and want to guide money policy is a reliable base forecast. How else can they set a good interest rate if they have no idea what inflation is going to be. That is why I have set out the need to completely change their forecasting models, to take money and credit seriously, and to recruit different people to provide diversity of thought.

1.The Bank should immediately conduct an internal review into its
models and forecasting to find out why it got inflation so wrong and to
propose amendments that would have produced better outcomes. It should
back test changes to the model to make sure they would result in material
improvements.

2.The Bank should produce an analysis of the role of money and
credit in inflation and discuss how this can be monitored and used in helping
make policy decisions about rates and money creation going forward.

3.The Bank should ensure in its future recruitment to senior roles on
the staff and to external appointments on its committee that it appoints to
obtain a greater diversity of views about economics and inflation. It should
wish to have representatives of the main strands of economic thought on the
important topics around the table.

4.The Bank should reward staff when it hits targets for accuracy of
forecasts and success of out turns to policy decisions.

5.The Bank should reconsider its attitude to Quantitative quantitative
tightening. If it is unimportant as an influence on inflation as it says and the
purpose is technical or tidying up it should stop selling bonds and let
maturities gradually reduce its balance sheet. It should consider whether its
bond sales do depress markets in ways which can disrupt them, consider the
flow across to its tasks in maintaining banking sector stability and ask
whether too many bond sales might make a recession more likely. Selling bonds at huge losses and sending the bills to the taxpayer is encouraging recession and preventing a growth policy.



Reduce government interference in energy

One subsidy leads to another. One windfall tax soon becomes several permanent tax rises on overtaxed energy. One price distortion tempts Regulators to do more. Instead of pursuing the three aims of security of supply, affordable power, and environmental requirements we end up with energy which is too dear and a growing dependency on imports and the goodwill of foreigners.

The boost to oil and gas prices caused by the decision to get Russian oil and gas out of our supply chains in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine was used as an opportunity to increase taxes on oil and gas. It was called a windfall tax  though the government did not specify what element of the price/profit was windfall, nor did it promise to cancel the tax when oil prices fell back. This then caused super profits for older renewable electricity investments so they too were put under a windfall tax. Subsequently new investment in renewables was exempted .  All this reinforced dearer energy, so then the government decided to spend a fortune on subsidies to domestic consumers. The government introduced a price cap on domestic energy bills. As prices fell so the price cap held costs up until the next review point. All these interventions were backed by the Opposition parties who usually wanted them to go further, last longer and tax and subsidise more.

This is a wasteful and worrying model for energy. It has meant higher public sector spending and borrowing. It has deterred investment in  new capacity through the higher and unpredictable taxes. It has helped close factories in the UK thanks to high energy prices, increase energy imports, and increase the imports of energy intensive goods.

The same thing is happening with energy using products. It is wrong to  tax car producers for selling too many petrol vehicles that people want to buy, and for  selling too few battery cars which people do not want to buy. It would be wrong to tax gas boiler manufacturers or to ban their product if people do not want to buy heat pumps. Government did not need to step in to ban blackberries in  order to promote smart phones, or to boost computer pads by taxing home desktops. There was no subsidy to promote mobile phones or internet services. Good products sell because people want them.



Get a grip on nationalised industry costs

When we had many nationalised industries they dominated public accounts and caused some of the overspending and over borrowing that damaged the Labour government of 1974-9. Nationalised industries sacked a lot of employees, over charged customers and often lost taxpayers huge sums. Rail, coal, steel were in painful decline. Telecoms fell well behind technically with shortages of investment.

Today the public accounts are being damaged again by two nationalised industries, rail and the Post Office, and by the colossal losses of the Bank of England.  Since 2022 the Bank has demanded £50 bn from taxpayers to pay its bills. Network Rail has just got approval for £30 bn of taxpayer cash for the next five years. The Post Office has lost £1400 m in recent years and now expects taxpayers to pay up for all the repayments and compensation they owe the sub postmasters.

I have often reported on the needless damage to the accounts  being perpetrated by the Bank. The Fed does not send its losses to the US Treasury for reimbursement. The ECB does not sell its bonds at huge losses in the markets. Only The Bank of England does this.

Network Rail plans to rely on taxpayer grant for almost two thirds  of its cash needs. Only 4% will come from revenues of its commercial, property and freight interests. It has fabulous land and buildings, with key sites in the  centres of our cities and many towns . It fails to develop those and to harness private capital to make more stations good locations to visit with retail and services. It fails to develop land  adjacent to stations and rail yards for commercial purposes.

Nationalised HS 2 was a spectacular  failure at building the original northern rail scheme to something like budget and timetable . It is ending up building  us a ridiculously costly additional London to Birmingham line  when improved signalling and by pass track would have been a much cheaper answer to any capacity issues.



My Daily Telegraph article on the green revolution as I sent them

The Telegraph amended this and added a headline without my consent.
The vast ambition of the net zero policies envisages most people switching their heating to electricity, their travel to bicycles and electric cars, and their diets to vegetarian options. It certainly needs the wholesale conversion of electricity generation from coal,oil and gas to renewables, and a solution to what to do when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow.  We need to ask are consumers ready for changes of this magnitude?
          So far governments have concentrated on doing what should be the easier bits of the change over. They have considerable influence and control over energy markets and have increased their interventions in them. They have ordered more renewables and pressed for closures of coal based generation. They have used subsidies, tax breaks, windfall taxes, regulations, managed prices and bans to tip electricity generation more strongly towards wind and solar power away from fossil fuel. They have got support  or acquiescence from the industry to this pathway. Industry actively promotes renewable power as a good. At home it  is forced to roll out smart meters to an increasingly sceptical group of consumers who have resisted them so far. It has come forward with many new windfarms and solar arrays.
         Even this transition in the UK has hit some buffers. More renewables means more grid to handle the great variability of output and to transfer the power from offshore and from the north to onshore and in the south where most of the customers are. The industry is behind on increasing grid capacity, and plans for it are delayed by planning processes that reveal the opposition to pylons in local landscapes. It is all more cost for consumers and taxpayers.
          The digital revolution sweeps on because people like its products and services. We have seen a near universal adoption of mobile phones. The majority have signed up readily to the internet, have liked downloading entertainment of their choice when they want it, have turned to social media and on line meetings to keep in touch with friends and family, have undertaken many a google search, let their photos and memos be stored on an Amazon web server and usually use Microsoft software. A handful of leading US companies have swept the globe with their new products and services without government subsidy, tax break or exhortation.
       So far the green revolution has not fired the same enthusiasms. Battery electric cars are still a hard sell. Heat pumps with a £7500 subsidy do not fly off the shelves. Whilst many people do say global warming is a problem and something should be done about it, few think it sufficient of a problem that they need to  change their travel, heating and diet. There are determined minorities on both sides of the argument. One group say it is essential people are made to change to stop the rise in temperatures. They want tougher tax rises,  more restrictions on drivers  and bans on fossil fuels. One group says it is all nonsense, with a variable climate affected by many things in addition to human carbon dioxide. They do not want the government interfering and think adaptation much cheaper than prevention if temperatures do rise.  The majority in  the middle would like policy to be gently pointing in a less carbon direction, but not in a way which would worsen their living standards and put up their costs.
       The all electric battery car is mainly bought by fleet buyers who benefit from a tax break and have to show their shareholders they are taking net zero seriously. Hertz car rentals has recently announced it bought too many electric cars and is unable to rent them all out, so it is selling some of its fleet. In the UK most individual car buyers think battery cars too dear, worry about their range and how you would be able to recharge them. Some think it would be better to develop synthetic fuels which can already be produced in small quantities. These  work in conventional engines and be supplied through existing filling stations.
        The heat pump is an even more difficult sell. If like many  you have an older house you first need to spend a lot with disruptive  works to properly insulate the whole building. You then face an installation and supply cost of around £15,000 before subsidy with more  works. You may need to put in bigger pipes and radiators to get it hot enough. Whilst the heat pump does cut the amount of energy needed to heat the home, given the much higher cost of electricity per unit of energy the running costs can still come out higher than a gas boiler.
      Some think it better to keep a modern gas boiler and change the gas fuel used to fire it. Increasing volumes of hydrogen or its derivatives made from renewable electricity and water could be fed into the gas supply as the power becomes available. There is little point people buying a heat pump system all the time we depend on gas fired power stations for the extra demand. Why burn the gas in a remote power station, losing energy in transmission, when you could burn it at home?
       More people are turning to vegetarian diets but no political party is going to ban meat or impose a special meat tax anytime soon. When the Dutch tried to cut back animal numbers  on local farms as part of a net zero strategy there was a political earthquake with a new Farmers party and  the Wilders party helping evict the government that did it. The best way to wean people off methane intensive animal products is by producing better alternatives.
       The world cannot get to net zero without major changes of consumer behaviour. The digital revolution shows people are willing to make big changes in the way they work, enjoy entertainment and talk to each other if you produce great new products and services. The Green revolution designed by global civil servants and forced upon us by governments still has to find the iconic products that would fire the imaginations of families. People do not want a landscape covered in pylons, a car that cannot make it easily to the next working charging point and a heating system that is a lot dearer than the one they have got. They do not want to be stuck in more traffic jams as highways authorities make it ever more difficult to get about in a van or car.  More do now worry about what happens to everything electric when the wind does not blow and when evening darkness has closed down the solar.